Well White Anthony Miller Jerseys , maybe the Vikings? But not really..."and you will quickly encounter the idea of a draft value trade charts. Essentially, the idea is that each draft pick has a certain value attached to it, and that when two teams want to trade picks, they consult a third-party reference, a chart, to figure out the general value of each selection.So far, this makes a lot of sense. However, talking heads, journalists, and bloggers (such as myself) frequently disagree about what chart should be used. There is the famed Jimmy Johnson chart—older than most of the players currently active in the NFL. There is also the Chase Stuart chart, which analytics fans will tell you is the “real” chart. It describes not what prices are paid for picks, but what (historically) the actual value is of each draft pick when compared to a metric called Career Average Value. Adherents of the Stuart chart point out that the Johnson chart privileges high picks far too much, that the fall-off is too steep, and that the newer chart as far more reflective of what players and picks “are really worth.”There’s just one problem: the NFL clearly does not care Anthony Miller Jerseys 2019 , as these charts show [Link].In the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft, there were twenty-three trades involving only picks (no players). Fourteen of those trades saw the higher draft pick bought or sold for within 5% of the values described by the Johnson Chart. Nineteen of the trades (83%) saw the higher pick bought or sold for 10% of the Johnson values. Every trade falls within 20%. In other words, after all these years, the Johnson chart is not bad.How about the Chase Stuart chart? Well...exactly two trades fell within 5% of the Stuart chart’s proposed values. The Vikings gave the Lions the #81 pick in the draft for what turns out to be 97% of the Stuart chart’s values, and they also gave the Jets the #92 pick in the draft for about the same value (in this case, the moved down one spot to pick up a 7th-rounder). Add the Raiders’ trade with the Jaguars, and you have all three times the Stuart chart was within 10% of the values traded. Even with a generous margin of +/- 20%, only nine of the trades fall within Stuart’s proposed values. Interestingly, there is only one trade where Stuart’s values were closer than Johnson’s values, and that was the Lions-Vikings trade mentioned above. Interestingly, there are teams (like the Vikings) who are clearly willing to sell picks for less than Johnson book values. Those teams end up matching the Stuart model more closely, and they probably have a reason for offering these discounts.Every trade in the first two days of the 2019 NFL draft says that the team moving up overpaid by the Stuart model, and that’s because the Stuart model favors (heavily) delivered value. It points out that there is very little increase in actual value as teams move up the ladder, and so the Stuart model is always going to favor moving down. Up to a point, this is sound.Bears fans “in the know” thus have a good reason to be frustrated as GM Ryan Pace consistently sheds picks and gives up value in order to make sure he gets the exact player he wants. By moving up the current White James Daniels Jerseys , he is defying historical trends that show (decisively) that he is making a mistake. On average, statistically, his approach will fail.However, NFL teams are not playing to win 9.7 games. They are playing to win each and every game. A player who gains 3.4 yards on a carry is a very marginal advantage over a player who gains 3.5 yards. Unless, of course, the team needs 3.45 yards to move the chains and that infamous index card comes out. There is not a lot of difference in marginal utility between a player who sacks the quarterback 54 times in a career than one who sacks the quarterback 55.5 times, unless those last 1.5 times come during a divisional game to clinch a playoff berth.NFL teams do, consistently, pay a premium in order to move up. Chase Stuart is 100% correct in thinking that the actual value they receive is not reflective of the prices they pay. However, NFL GMs consistently show that regardless of whether or not Stuart is correct about delivered value and its meaning, his chart is an abstraction. They don’t care. It’s probably time for fans, for pundits, and for draft gurus to accept that fact. Now the Rich Hill chart, on the other hand...(to be continued) Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy refuses to dwell on the second-half collapse by his team in Sunday's 24-23 loss at Green Bay in the season opener.It's not easy, considering the Bears blew a 20-point lead in Nagy's head coaching debut. They'll take it as a lesson learned."It stings James Daniels Jerseys 2019 , but we need to use this," Nagy said Monday after reviewing film. "We need to go ahead and use this to get better."If you have the negative, pessimistic approach to it, then that's all wrong."The loss bore a striking resemblance to the way Nagy's season ended last year as Kansas City's offensive coordinator — a 22-21 playoff loss to Tennessee after the Chiefs led 21-3.Except in this one it was an injured Aaron Rodgers coming off the bench to lead the comeback against Khalil Mack and a Bears defense that dominated the first half.Meanwhile, the Bears offense and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky struggled at some key points in the game with chances to lock up a win."We're close," Trubisky said after the game. "We know how close we are."Rodgers took the Packers downfield immediately for the game-winning touchdown, and Trubisky failed to get the Bears past midfield needing a field goal on their final possession.Trubisky finished 23 of 35 for 171 yards with a passer rating of 77.2."He played the way I knew he could play," Nagy said of Trubisky. "He made some plays. Now we left some out there too, but that's going to happen."Trubisky missed a throw on a fade pattern in the end zone to a wide-open Allen Robinson, resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown. He had a few other mistakes and the Bears settled for two second-half field goals, while struggling on third-and-short situations."We expected a lot of man (coverage) on third-and-short and they came out and played a bunch of zone," Trubisky said. "Credit to them for just mixing it up."A lot of our calls were built for man. We had some risky calls that we just went with and we blew them and they just made plays that we didn't."On the final drive, in particular, Trubisky appeared somewhat rattled by the rush and overthrew Robinson. He also appeared too willing to abandon the play to scramble."There were some good ones, and there were a few where I thought his clock was ticking a little too fast White Dan Hampton Jerseys ," Nagy said. "You get the pocket collapse a little bit, and I thought that instead of just sliding and then hitching forward, it was a run. He kinda dashed out of there."Nagy also criticized his own play-calling, including a pair of ill-advised screen passes."They played the screens well yesterday," Nagy said. "That's a credit to them. I go back personally. We ran two screens back to back and I didn't like those calls."I told the guys those were on me."Nagy noted defensive problems as well, such as shoddy second-half tackling and Kyle Fuller dropping a potential game-deciding interception. By and large, the offense had the most struggles with just 16 points scored.One area where Nagy wouldn't back down was in defending his decision not to play starters in the next-to-last preseason game. He feels it had no negative influence on offensive execution."The start of the game, going right down the field in 14 plays and scoring a touchdown, that's growth," Nagy said. "The middle, the three-and-outs, that's not growth. We've got to fix those."And so that's not just the players, that's the coaching staff, that's myself. We do it together."NOTES: The Bears came through the game without a new injury. Linebacker Danny Trevathan went down briefly with a back injury but returned and finished. ... Hall of Fame inductee Brian Urlacher will be honored at halftime of Monday night's home opener against Seattle with induction into the Bears Ring of Excellence. Urlacher's Hall of Fame bust will be at Soldier Field.