"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections San Diego Chargers Daily LinksSan Diego Chargers NewsSan Diego Chargers OffseasonSan Diego Chargers HistorySan Diego Chargers HumorThe 4th Down Bot Vs. 2018: Part OneNew Youth Philip Rivers Jerseys ,5commentsHow did the Chargers fare in the most pivotal down in football last year?PSTShareTweetShareShareThe 4th Down Bot Vs. 2018: Part OneIf you missed the Prologue, you can read about the Rebirth of the 4th Down Bot HERE.For everyone else, we’re going to jump right in to the data to see how the LA Chargers did against the odds in 2018.First, let’s call the 4th Down Bot (ver 2.0)back over here so that we can look at the chart:The difference between Bot 1.0 and Bot 2.0 is a more aggressive push in the final minutes of each half. In all other matters, the above chart is identical for both modelsThis monster of pigskin and steel is bent on one ultimate goal: to maximize the gridiron’s most pivotal down. While that sounds nice and dandy, the Bot’s methods are uncompromising and ruthlessly efficient. The good news is that modern football is aligning more and more with the Bot’s point of view, so clashes should be limited as more and more teams begin to utilize analytics to a greater degree. The first iteration of the 4th Down Bot did not take into account the game clock. The Professor fixed this with the second iteration, but those changes really only apply to the final 3 minutes and 45 seconds of each half. In short—the 4th Down Bot has research and historical data that proves that aggressive playcalling on 4th Down can pay off more often than not.Did Anthony Lynn take note?2018:Part One - Weeks 1-4Now let’s compare these stats with previous seasons!2018:Week 1: 4/7 (57.1%)Week 2: 3/6 (50.0%)Week 3: 6/6 (100.0%)* A 1/6 correction noted between bot 1.0 and 2.0!Week 4: 6/8 (75.0%)2018 1st Quarter season stats: 19/27 (70.3%) agreement2017:Week 1: 5/8 (62.5%)Week 2: 5/5 (100.0%)Week 3: 4/6 (66.6%)Week 4: 5/7 (71.4%)2017 1st Quarter season stats: 19/26 (73.0%) agreementAnd to further the comparison and contrast Philip Rivers Jerseys Stitched , we’re throwing in the last year before Anthony Lynn:2016:Week 1: 5/8 (62.5%)Week 2: 5/5 (100.0%)Week 3: 4/6 (66.6%)Week 4: 5/7 (71.4%)2016 1st Quarter season stats: 19/26 (73.0%) agreementAre you surprised by these results?As a numbers guy, I immediately am incredibly surprised that the amount of agreed plays was absolutely identical for the previous three years. That is, in and of itself, a statistical anomaly. There being only one more 4th down play attempted in 2018 versus the previous two years is also astounding (and very nice for quality comparison!).Many think of Anthony Lynn as an aggressive coach: a loose cannon that could ‘go for two’ at any point. This exercise is ill-equipped to prove or disprove that notion. Instead, it illustrates whether or not coaches were more or less likely to follow good statistics for their 4th down calls. You might be tempted to think that, based on these results, Mike McCoy was unfairly vilified for his playcalling. I’ll leave you with this final roundup:2016 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 16 of 262017 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 16 of 262018 - 4th down calls within own field side (weeks 1-4): 14 of 27My interpretation of these numbers is that Anthony Lynn is actually learning from his experiences. While the first quarter of 2018 indicates that he slightly took his foot off of the gas on 4th down compared to 2017, he’s still on the right side of the odds (the league average was 62.4% agreement in 2018).What’s more Youth Melvin Gordon Jerseys , the times that Lynn did not agree with the bot was when he decided he’d rather have points on the board or pin the other team rather deep and trust his defense.NEXT WEEK: Lynn Vs. the 4th Down Bot - 2nd Quarter 2018 (Weeks 5-9)-Jason “My Numbers are Dayed” Michaels Apart from questions like whether Josh Rosen is traded and to whom he’s traded and for how much he’s traded is the fundamental question of when he’ll be traded.The team that lands Rosen may want him sooner than later, especially with offseason programs launching soon. Ideally for his new team, he’ll be around for as much of the preparation for the 2019 season as possible, which means having him there from the moment the offseason program begins.Ideally for the NFL and his current team, however, Rosen won’t be traded until the 2019 draft begins.The draft has become the league’s biggest offseason tentpole event, a long-ready-for-prime-time show about nothing that draws millions of viewers to watch a traveling circus that doesn’t need to travel, and that doesn’t need to be a circus. The first pick becomes the centerpiece of that unnecessary circus Melvin Gordon Jerseys Stitched , and the longer the identity of the pick can be kept secret, the more compelling the unnecessary circus becomes.Surely, the NFL has urged the Cardinals to not tip their hand regarding the identity of the first overall pick until it’s time to return the card with his name on it. Although on various occasions before the adoption of the rookie wage scale the first overall pick would be signed to a contract before the draft even begins, that hasn’t happened since the not-much-to-negotiate reality emerged under the 2011 CBA.If the Cardinals have any concerns whatsoever about the presumed first overall pick, Kyler Murray, picking baseball now or within the next four years, it could be wise to get Murray to sign before officially picking him a football contract that includes a Jameis Winston-style no-baseball term. While that can happen almost simultaneously with the selection of Murray, it becomes harder to keep everything secret if/when the Cardinals and Murray commence discussions on a rookie deal in the days before the draft starts.Trading Rosen before the start of the draft would end any reason to keep that silent Youth Joey Bosa Jerseys , which means that the league should be as concerned about getting Arizona to tap the brakes on a pre-draft trade as the league will be about getting the Cardinals not to let the cat out of the bag as to their plan at No. 1. And it actually makes sense for the Cardinals to wait to finalize the trade until the pick that they’ll be getting is on the clock; if the Cardinals acquire a specific pick before that pick is due to be selected, someone else can try to predict who they want and to cut the line by trading up in front of that pick.A problem arises if the teams who want Rosen want him ASAP, and for the same reason the NFL needs to get the Cardinals to take it slow, the league will need to convince the teams pursuing Rosen to be patient.There’s one strategic reason for the Cardinals to hold Rosen. If the Cardinals hope to sign Murray to a contract with a no-baseball provision, Murray secures more leverage if Rosen is traded before Murray signs.Except for that last point, most of the concern is irrelevant. But it’s highly relevant to the question of making the NFL draft as successful as it can be, maximizing interest and TV ratings by minimizing information about what the Cardinals may do.